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"Actuaries that speak english, a miracle!"

— Steven D. Chandler, MMG Insurance

 

 

Overview  — Predictive Analytics

Predictive analytics is a process of analyzing data at its most granular level. It can help unlock descriptive information embedded in that data to allow you to better segment, price, market and manage the products you write. Once considered just an innovative technique for the insurance industry, predictive analytics is now necessary for the success of personal and commerical insurers of all sizes. Whether you need to determine how predictive analytics can help your organization or have been using predictive analytic techniques for years, you can count on Pinnacle’s expertise.

Our clients put Pinnacle’s nationally-recognized predictive analytics expertise to work for their pricing, underwriting, claims and marketing needs. You too can enjoy substantial benefits from our predictive analytics solutions, which include:

  • Risk pricing and selection
  • Claims and underwriting process improvements
  • Profitable, long-term customer identification

We can develop specific predictive analytic applications or act as advisors to your predictive analytics practice. Since Pinnacle has a commitment to knowledge transfer, we offer training so your team can learn how to apply basic and state-of-the-art predictive analytic techniques and develop basic and advanced applications.

Experience the Pinnacle Difference: Timely, dependable and professional responses. Plain language that not only communicates our findings, but that adds value in the process. Understandable reports and presentations that help you navigate the jargon-filled process of the insurance business. And a team of experts who are focused on doing whatever it takes to exceed your expectations, time and time again.

Services  — Predictive Analytics

Claims

Nothing can save money and secure customer satisfaction like superior claims service. Whether your claims organization is state-of-the-art or facing some challenges, the secret to improving the claims process lies within the information you already have. With the help of new data analysis techniques, you can better understand how key factors such as reporting delays, vendors, independent adjusters, attorney involvement, injury type and claimant characteristics impact your claims process.

Claims predictive analytic services include:

  • Developing claims settlement value estimation models based on claim characteristics at various points of the claims process
  • Creating an “early warning system” for identifying large and extraordinary claims
  • Analyzing industry claims data sources to estimate the impact of law and regulation changes
  • Evaluating claims service providers to determine their value
  • Identifying report, contact and settlement lags to determine their effect on claim settlement values
  • Developing a fraud detection system

Class Factor Analysis

Pinnacle helps insurers identify rating plan elements that can be more appropriately priced or added for additional risk segmentation. You can benefit from Pinnacle’s class plan analysis, which evaluates rating relativities with multivariate analysis to eliminate distributional bias in insurance pricing, regardless of the size of your company.

Pinnacle is experienced with using external data to supplement your own experience. For class plan analysis, we have used data from:

  • Marshall & Swift / Boeckh (MSB)
  • Highway Loss Data Institute (HLDI)
  • U.S. Census Bureau
  • R.L. Polk
  • Dunn and Bradstreet
  • TransUnion
  • Choice Point
  • Carfax
  • Explore

Credit Scoring

Credit-based insurance scores have been extremely valuable in risk segmentation, pricing, rating and underwriting.

Using credit scores in your rating is just the first step. Optimizing your use of credit will help you develop and maintain a competitive advantage. And, since credit scores are in common use, consider giving your rating and underwriting processes another look with predictive analytics. This can answer questions including:

  • How often should I reorder my credit score?
  • How much do credit scores change over time? How does that impact pricing?
  • Do credit scores have significant interactions with other rating characteristics?
  • How is my competitor's use of credit scoring impacting my book of business? 

 

Lifetime Customer Value

The traditional actuarial focus has been to price for profitability over the next six to eighteen months. However, most corporate goals include a desire for long-term profitability, which can create a disconnect between the prices charged by insurers and long-term company goals. A lifetime customer value analysis, however, develops a long-term view of customer value and determines how to best use this information to make more profitable long term decisions.

Lifetime customer value analysis includes:

  • Analyzing current profitability
  • Incorporating the probability of attracting, converting and renewing a risk
  • Analyzing how competition effects the ability to write and retain risks
  • Quantifying demand elasticity with an insurer’s information supplemented by public information
  • Highlighting differences between decisions made using traditional approaches and a long-term customer value approach
  • Discussing the practical considerations of implementing these concepts

Marketing

A predictive analytics marketing analysis can help you more effectively use your limited resources to target potential new business. Based on marketing response and hit ratio analysis, insurers can determine:

  • Which potential marketing targets are most likely to respond?
  • Of those who respond, which are most likely to purchase a policy?
  • How do I optimize my marketing plan to maximize profitable business?
  • What are the characteristics of a customer that shops? Who is most likely to switch?
  • How likely is it that a certain type of customer will respond to cross selling?

Price Optimization

Price optimization will help you find the best premium to charge subject to a set of constraints. How does one determine what price is “best”? The answer varies by company, but is usually determined by working through the corporate goals and the traditional constraints on prices, and setting the price that best helps the company achieve its goals.

Our price optimization analysis takes into account many business considerations -- competitiveness, new business flow and expected profitability, losses and retention -- to take your pricing and profitability to the next level.
 

Pricing

Pricing insurance products today has become much more sophisticated. Insurers are using many new factors to segment insurance risk in innovative ways. We can apply predictive analytics to better segment and price your risks and maintain or gain competitive advantage.

Our pricing services include:

  • Identifying and processing insurer data for pricing analyses
  • Identifying and introducing external data to supplement pricing plans
  • Supporting new pricing plan implementation in many ways - such as internal system specifications and regulatory approvals

Program Development

Pinnacle has experience in all stages of program development -- from creating a new, unique program to program conversion. This includes everything from refining existing programs to developing new programs. Pricing, coverage features, and eligibility can all play an essential part in a successful new product. Pinnacle also has experience developing program submission books for taking proposed programs to market seeking fronting carriers.

Residual Market Optimization

Some jurisdictions have residual market mechanisms that allow insurers to cede a portion of their book of business to a residual market. Predictive analytics enables insurers to compare their premiums with a more detailed expected loss calculation to develop more effective risk ceding rules. This analysis ensures that the least profitable risks are being ceded to the residual market, which will positively impact the bottom line.

Retention and Conversion Analysis

As an insurer, you need to know more than just what it will cost to insure a risk, but whether you can write and retain it at a given price. A retention and conversion analysis determines the likelihood that an insurer can write or retain a risk based on its risk characteristics, marketplace competitiveness, marketing channels and historical price changes. With this information in hand, you can adjust risk pricing, develop targeted marketing plans and better determine long-term potential profitability.

Symbol Analysis

Using external data, Pinnacle creates vehicle classification factors that replace or supplement existing model year and symbol factors. Pinnacle can help insurers develop their own vehicle classification factors so introducing new models is quick and easy.

Territory Analysis

Territories should be regularly updated or reconsidered to ensure risks are competitively priced. Thanks to the emergence of multivariate analysis and clustering and smoothing techniques, we can help you discover state-of-the-art rating territories that will challenge your competitors.

We can help you develop the most appropriate theoretical territorial set, adjust these sets for real-life constraints and review the impact upon your existing portfolio. Pinnacle can also make further adjustments based upon desired maximum rate swing constraints and provide rate filing support.

Pinnacle has developed clustering techniques for territorial analysis, which begin with data at a very refined -- typically ZIP code -- level. Then we smooth and cluster the data in an iterative process to form homogeneous rating territories. We have applied these techniques for many clients, in several states to produce rating territories that comply with any state rating restrictions. This approach can also help you design more objective and predictive territory definitions.

If your data is too sparse to have full credibility, Pinnacle can help obtain additional data to supplement your data with additional experience.

Our Geographic Information Systems analysts create territory boundary maps electronically for use in either PCArcView or MapInfo mapping software. These files allow us to identify areas where mismatch of territory definitions create either competitive advantage or competitive disadvantage.

We have also built a library of rating territory maps for auto and home. These maps have been the backbone of our competitive analysis services and are now available through our mapping services department. The maps are available on paper or in electronic format (Mapinfo, Arc/view). We will export into other formats on request. The files can also be overlaid to show comparisons between companies. If we don't have the company, line or state that you are looking for, custom mapping is available.

Territory Definitions

You may be missing competitive opportunities to better price risks at the territorial level. Pinnacle can help insurers develop state-of-the-art rating territories by applying territorial clustering and smoothing. Our process takes into account practical considerations, including regulatory legal constraints on territory definitions and impact on your existing portfolio.

Using Summit®, our territorial software, our expert actuaries can apply smoothing and clustering techniques to your experience by product, state, line of business and coverage/peril and location to develop territories on a contiguous or non-contiguous basis. Data is also available to supplement the process such that even smaller insurers can take advantage of the power of refined territory definitions.
 

Underwriting

Traditionally, underwriters are responsible for selecting risks consistent with company philosophy. For many insurance products, however, the line between underwriting and rating has blurred recently, as many subjective elements historically considered in underwriting are now falling into tiering or rating. Some companies also have the philosophy that since any risk can be written at the right price, no risks should be rejected.

Predictive analytic applications for underwriters include:

  • Straight through processing strategy
  • Targeted home/vehicle inspections
  • Rules-based MVR ordering
  • Book of business profitability analysis for underwriting guidelines
  • Analytical review of underwriting guidelines
  • Selection/rejection criteria
  • Underwriting action indicators.

There is a wealth of information available from historical underwriting information, and this can be used to make the underwriting process more effective.
 

Vehicle Classification

Thanks to predictive analytics and new developments in auto data, you can enjoy more accurate vehicle classifications-- regardless of your company’s size. We can also develop liability symbols to determine your company’s best approach for rating vehicles for liability coverage. You don’t have to worry about the complexities from the proliferation of vehicle makes and models by model year either. We have that covered too.

Expertise  — Predictive Analytics

As recognized leaders in predictive analytics, pricing and underwriting, we have handled over 100 projects during the past ten years for insurers of all sizes, from four of the top 10 property and casualty insurance companies to small insurers. Due to our more than 300 years of combined experience in property/casualty insurance and financial services, we deliver more than a model - we provide marketplace expertise to boost results.

Pinnacle is committed to transferring its knowledge of the predictive analytics process to its clients.  Our modeling tools are flexible and quick enough to perform applications in real time at your office. Since we place a great emphasis on knowledge transfer, we are happy to walk you through the process so next time, you can do it yourself.

Products  — Predictive Analytics

MSB PerilVision™

Overview
If your company writes homeowners insurance, you already know how competitive the market can be. That’s why you need to know more about the risks you are insuring so that you have every tool possible to protect and gain market share.

Thanks to a strategic partnership between Pinnacle Actuarial Resources, Inc. - the insurance predictive analytics authority - and MSB, the go-to source for property intelligence; you can transform your book of business by leveraging risk-based building characteristics in your pricing and underwriting.

What is MSB's PerilVision™?
Using MSB’s property intelligence and Pinnacle’s predictive analytic expertise, PerilVision™ delivers peril-specific scores and a composite score to predict loss potential on each household. The scores correlate objective and observable property characteristics to loss potential based on your company’s historical claims data and a compiled industry database. This approach provides a solution specific and appropriate for each company, while at the same time allowing even small companies to have the data and support usually limited to large insurers.

As another means of predicting a home’s exposure to loss, PerilVision scores go beyond just using Amount of Insurance. The additional knowledge obtained from PerilVision creates a proven competitive advantage, enabling insurers to price more precisely through enhanced risk segmentation and make more informed underwriting decisions.

Territory Maps

Sometimes numbers on paper is not enough. Territory maps can be used as a visual aid to help you analyze your data more efficiently and accurately. Pinnacle’s custom territory mapping can support and display all data types by illustrating any spatial relationships or patterns that may occur. Many of our studies for regulators and legislative panels rely on maps to clearly communicate the results of our analysis.

Our territory maps augment our competitive analysis services by showing premium comparisons, rankings and territory boundaries between different companies.

By applying our smoothing and clustering techniques using surrounding geographical areas instead of statewide information, we can develop and enhance your geographic rating definitions with our Summit product.

Territory maps can be used to convey general information about spatial patterns. For example, comparisons of industry differences by state for legislative costing studies come to life using our mapping tools.

Applying geographic boundaries to territory maps can help you describe specific information about particular locations.

Through custom territory mapping, we can support or display all data types to help you analyze and communicate data more efficiently and accurately.

Summit ®

Do you think your territorial rating process is accurately reflecting geographic exposure? If you are like most insurers, you are missing competitive opportunities to better price risks at the territorial level.

Summit® can change all that. Instead of using county, city or street boundaries as territories, you can easily and efficiently build finer-detail geographic boundaries based on actual underlying experience. Summit supports new rating territories by smoothing and clustering your experience with various catastrophe models — whether hurricane, severe thunderstorm or earthquake. Specifically designed for ZIP code-defined data, Summit can also handle more refined data levels, such as census blocks or tracts.

Summit's smoothing feature provides you the flexibility to select the smoothing equation, credibility exposure and/or distance standard to specify how far to “reach out” to surrounding ZIP codes. You’ll also see how adding more information contributes to finer, more accurate smoothing of local data.

With Summit, you can develop and evaluate numerous sets of indicated territory boundaries by grouping or clustering areas of similar experience on a Visual Basic platform. You can also perform the clustering process using contiguous or non-contiguous areas based on dollar or percentage differences. The output then provides graphically-displayed diagnostics to determine the statistically-optimal number of territories. Summit also creates a variety of territorial scenarios in one run.

Towers Watson Pretium ®

Pinnacle Actuarial Resources, Inc. has provided support to the Towers Watson Pretium ® user in the United States and Canada since September, 2008. As of September 30, 2011, support will be provided directly through Towers Watson: http://www.towerswatson.com. We thank you for the opportunity to have provided this service to you and your organization.

Pinnacle’s consultants continue to provide predictive analytics consulting services and software solutions to the property and casualty insurance industry. Our expertise in analytics, background in product development and management, and our commitment to knowledge transfer will continue to make us the Firm of Choice for predictive analytics.

Click to visit the Predictive Analytics section of our website.

We look forward to remaining a strategic part of your business team and your organization’s success.

For more information on Predictive Analytics contact us at 309-807-2300 or e-mail us at:
info@pinnacleactuaries.com.
 

People  — Predictive Analytics

Photo LeRoy Boison FCAS, MAAA Principal and Consulting Actuary



Biography
Office Phone: 516-746-7149
lboison@pinnacleactuaries.com
Photo Nicholas G. Kucera SAS® Certified Predictive Modeler Consultant



Biography
Office Phone: 630-457-1293
NKucera@pinnacleactuaries.com
Photo Steven G. Lehmann FCAS, FSA, FCIA, MAAA Consulting Actuary



Biography
Office Phone: 309-807-2302
slehmann@pinnacleactuaries.com
Photo Laura A. Maxwell FCAS, MAAA Consulting Actuary



Biography
Office Phone: 415-692-0938
lmaxwell@pinnacleactuaries.com
Photo Roosevelt C. Mosley, Jr. FCAS, MAAA Principal and Consulting Actuary



Biography
Office Phone: 309-807-2330
rmosley@pinnacleactuaries.com
Photo Robert J. Walling, III FCAS, MAAA Principal and Consulting Actuary



Biography
Office Phone: 309-807-2320
rwalling@pinnacleactuaries.com
Photo Gary C. Wang FCAS, MAAA Consulting Actuary



Biography
Office Phone: 309-807-2331
gwang@pinnacleactuaries.com

Case Studies  — Predictive Analytics

Claims

Pinnacle was approached by a regional insurer that wanted to develop a predictive model that estimated the time that a claim would be open based on what is known at the first notice of loss. The company felt like this would allow them to more effectively manage their caseload and handle claims more proactively. Pinnacle, through the use of predictive modeling, assisted the carrier in designing a model which predicted cycle time based on the FNOL. Not only did this give the company a better understanding of its claims, but also assisted them in understanding their claims data better and improving their data collection.

Commercial Lines

Pinnacle was approached by a national insurer that wanted to develop a more sophisticated commercial automobile rating program. Their current commercial automobile plan was a traditional rating approach and did not take full advantage of driver, credit scoring or vehicle characteristics and the company felt they could take advantage of a significant opportunity in the market. Pinnacle, through the use of predictive modeling, assisted the carrier in designing a new rating and tiering structure, which included modifications of the rating plan, the introduction of underwriting scoring, and new territory definitions. This new structure allowed the company to have more precise rating, more adequate and yet competitive rates for a broader spectrum of risks.

Personal Lines

Pinnacle was approached by a national insurer that wanted to develop a more sophisticated homeowners rating program. Their current homeowners plan was a traditional rating approach and was only based on a few factors, and the company felt they were not taking full advantage of the potential in the homeowners market. Pinnacle, through the use of predictive modeling, assisted the carrier in designing a new rating and tiering structure, which included the introduction of by-peril rating and new territory definitions. This new structure allowed the company to be more precise in rating homeowners, resulting in more adequate and competitive rates for a broader spectrum of risks.

Territory / Summit Analysis

The insurer had not reviewed or adjusted their territorial boundaries in several years; and their current territories were not based upon an analysis of their underlying loss experience.
 
Pinnacle began with an evaluation of available insurer and external industry data at the ZIP code level as well as their current and future policy processing capabilities. After all of the experience data was adjusted to a common base level, we used our Summit® software product to smooth the data to develop an initial adjusted pure premium by ZIP code to reflect both experience in a ZIP code and in neighboring ZIP codes. The number of additional neighboring ZIP codes used was dependent upon attaining a sufficient exposure level.

The smoothed data was then clustered using Summit® on both a contiguous and non-contiguous basis. The insurer needed to decide whether to maintain relatively contiguous definitions or use more granular and theoretically accurate non-contiguous definitions. Using statistical measures, we identified and graphed optimal definition sets. Non-contiguous definitions were selected by the client. To minimize the number of territories with a limited geographic area or only a few ZIP codes, some manual combination of “outlying” ZIP codes with territories (clusters) with similar adjusted pure premiums was performed.

Finally, we assisted the insurer in developing the necessary filing support material to gain approval. The new program is generating new business in areas of historical profitability but previously less than average competiveness.
 

Underwriting & Tiering Analysis

A single state auto insurance writer hired Pinnacle to address its current rating and tiering program. We removed unnecessary underwriting restrictions and more adequately priced risk classes, which allowed the insurer to experience significant, profitable growth.

When we began, the company’s existing tiering design was only based on a few factors, including ones that significantly overlapped with the rating plan. When combined with the underwriting rules, the design was punitive and limited writable business. Through predictive modeling, we helped design a new tiering structure and applied an underwriting scoring approach to eliminate rating plan overlap and remove the overly punitive parts of the plan.
 

Vehicle Rating

Pinnacle was approached by a major national personal lines insurer to develop a vehicle rating program to replace the use of the ISO symbol product. Pinnacle, through the use of predictive modeling, assisted the carrier in designing a new vehicle rating program which made use of the vehicle’s actual physical characteristics for both the liability and physical damage coverages. The data used for the analysis was the company’s VIN data supplemented with industry VIN data and appended for vehicle characteristics from an external third party vendor. The resultant program completely eliminated the need for use of the ISO symbol and exhibited greater predictive power than the prior ISO based system.

Publications  — Predictive Analytics

January 2012 Apex Discussion Series
  Presentations - Building an Analytics Driven Culture
  Authored by 
Pinnacle Predictive Modeling, Ratemaking & Product Development
October 2011 Apex Discussion Series
  Presentations - Reports and Presentations to Board of Directors
  Authored by 
July 2011 Apex Discussion Series
  Presentations - Application of Analytics to Claim Fraud Detection
  Authored by 
May 2011 Apex Discussion Series
  Presentations - Credit-Based Tools in Commercial Lines
  Authored by 
Using Predictive Analytics to Detect Fraudulent Claims
  Presentations - CAS Spring Meeting – May 2011
  Authored by 
Commercial Lines Predictive Analytics: Before and After
  Presentations - CAS RPM Seminar - March 2011
  Authored by 
March 2011 Apex Discussion Series
  Presentations - Vehicle Rating Using Predictive Modeling Techniques
  Authored by 
Predictive Modeling for the Rest of Us
  Presentations - NAMIC Commerical Lines - March 2011
  Authored by 
Analysis of Internet Auto Insurance Purchasing Behavior
  Presentations - January Apex Discussion Series
  Authored by 
Improving Commercial Casualty Claims Handling with Predictive Analytics
  Monographs - October 2010
  Authored by 
Pinnacle Healthcare Industry Brochure
Pinnacle Predictive Modeling Brochure
Pinnacle Trucking and Transportation Services Brochure
An Analytical Approach to Determining Customer Value in the Property & Casualty Insurance Industry
  Authored by 
Credit Based Tools in Commercial Lines
  Presentations - Apex Discussion Series - March 2010
  Authored by 
Model Year and Vehicle Rating
  Presentations - CAS RPM Seminar 2010
  Authored by 
The Dangers of Blind Faith in Model
  Articles - 2009 CAS Presidential Address CAS Yearbook and Proceedings - February 2009
Underwriting Power Tools for Small Business Insurance
  Monographs - September 2008
  Authored by 
Upgrading the Claims Process through Predictive Modeling
  Monographs - January 2008
  Authored by 
Rules Of The Road: Predictive Modeling Can Help Commercial Insurers Set Premiums
  Articles - Best's Review - October 2007
  Authored by 
Commercial Auto Predictive Modeling: The Time is Now
  Monographs - September 2007
  Authored by 
Farmowners Pricing Should Change with Farms
  Monographs - July 2007
  Authored by 
Living Without Credit Scoring
  Articles - Contingencies - July / August 2007
  Authored by 
Detecting a Pattern
  News Releases - Best's Review - May 2005
  Authored by 
The Use of Predictive Modeling in the Insurance Industry
  Monographs - January 2005
  Authored by 
New Jersey Automobile No-Fault Study: Analysis of the Cost Effects of AB 3531 and SB 2533
  Articles - NAIC 2004
  Authored by 
Are You Ready to Unlock the Power Hidden in Your BOP Application?
  Monographs - July 2003
  Authored by 
Pinnacle Claims Predictive Modeling Brochure
Pinnacle Summit Flyer
Summit Brochure