Setting a reasonable accrual for unpaid loss and loss adjustment expense obligations is one of the most critical functions of management in preparation of a program’s financials. Performing such analyses is our bread and butter, but emphasis is always placed on using the program’s actual data to the maximum extent possible (rather than relying on external benchmarks) in order to reflect your program’s unique loss characteristics.
When necessary, we will rely on our library of industry, state and insurer/TPA specific benchmarks. These benchmarks allow us to derive reasonable estimates of the accrual for unpaid claims liabilities to the extent your program’s data is not of sufficient volume or reliability to be fully credible for analysis.
You expect your consulting actuary to interact daily with captive managers, auditors, fronting carriers, reinsurers and other service providers, presenting the analysis of the program’s liabilities for unpaid claims – generally the largest item on the Liability side of the balance sheet. Pinnacle leverages its good working relationships with dozens and dozens of service providers, regulators and managers in jurisdictions around the globe to your advantage.
Loss reserve projections generally take one of four forms:
- Point estimate of mean expected loss and loss expense reserves (i.e., “actuarial central estimate" or best estimate)
- Reasonable range of indicated loss and loss expense reserves
- Reserves at a specified higher level of statistical confidence
- Stochastic forecast of the range of all possible outcomes (i.e., a distribution of potential loss and loss expense reserve estimates)